Majority
of NC Citizens Vote Republican for State House
But Richard Morgan
Redistricting Plan Gives 63-57 Majority to Democrats
The majority of North Carolina’s citizens voted Republican in
2004. President Bush won a great victory with 56% of the vote,
Richard Burr won the U.S. Senate race with 52% of the vote, and
Republicans continued to make historic gains in the Council of State
races.
Republican candidates for the
Legislature also won a majority of the statewide vote. Republican
candidates for the state House received 51% of the vote to the
Democrats 47%, and state Senate Republicans won 50.3% to the
Democrats 47.9%. But despite Republicans getting a majority of the
vote, Democrats won 63 House seats to 57 for Republicans, and 29
Senate seats to 21 for the Republicans.
People are already playing the blame game as to why Republicans did
not win a majority of seats in the Legislature. But the numbers speak
for themselves, and those numbers were created by redistricting
Whether a candidate wins of course depends on many factors, including
the candidate’s strengths, the effectiveness of the campaign,
fundraising, local as well as state issues, and how well the entire
party ticket is doing. However, whether a candidate has a chance at
all, depends on the demographics of their district -- how the
district is drawn. And when Republican candidates get the majority of
the vote, but the Democrats win the majority of the seats, it is
obvious that redistricting is the primary reason.
.
Morgan Redistricting Plan Packed Republicans, Gave
Democrats Majority of Seats
Republicans never would have even had a chance for a House majority
under the Democrats’ original “Sutton 3” and
“Sutton 5” redistricting plans. However, thanks to the
successful Stephenson lawsuit (which Morgan opposed),
Republicans did win both a majority of the vote, and a 61-seat
majority under the 2002 judicial Interim Plans.
Despite the Republican majority, Richard Morgan joined the Democrats,
and pushed through the Democrats’ Senate and House
redistricting plans. Morgan and the Democrats were forced to at
least partially comply with the Stephenson decision, and
Morgan claimed that the 2004 Redistricting Plan was better for the
Republicans than the 2002 Interim Plan.
Morgan’s 2004 Redistricting Plan did create more strong, or
packed, Republican House districts. But “packing”
Republicans was a classic gerrymander technique that favored
Democrats, because creating more packed Republican districts,
means fewer overall districts that Republicans can win. By any
criteria, the “Remedial 14 Plan” that fully
complied with the NC Constitution and was drawn by Republican
National Committee experts (a plan which Morgan would not allow to be
heard during the 2003 Redistricting Special Session), was better for
Republicans than the adopted Democrat-Morgan Plan. The below is
just one comparison that shows how the Democrat-Morgan Plan packed
Republicans and helped the Democrats win an overall majority of seats
with minority of the statewide vote in 2004:
Analysis of
Potential Republican Seats From December, 2003
Democrat-Morgan
Remedial 14
House Plan
House Plan
Percent of Voters Registered Republicans
56
61
Republican Registration
of 35% or more
12
7
Republican Registration of 49% or more
I regret that this
analysis was right. It was off by only one seat, in predicting that
even in a good year with a majority of the vote, Republicans would
win 56 seats under Morgan’s plan. The numbers speak for
themselves - Richard Morgan’s Redistricting Plan and
“leadership” took Republicans from winning a 61-seat
majority in 2002, to being in the minority by six seats after 2004
elections. The Senate Democrats Plan, passed with Morgan’s
support, also gave the Democrats the majority of the seats, despite
Republican Senate candidates winning a majority of the state wide
vote in 2004.
Morgan’s Goal To Defeat
Republicans
I have heard that
Richard Morgan is actually blaming the Republican Party and
grassroots for the loss of the Republican House majority! But who
wanted Republican incumbents to lose through redistricting, the
primaries and General Election? A November 30, 2001 interview
with Richard Morgan in The Pilot stated: “Morgan
frankly admits there are some Republicans he would like to see
defeated in GOP primaries next year . . . . He [Morgan] sees
some hope for personnel changes as a result of the redistricting of
the House . . . . What Morgan would like to see is a ‘cleansing’
of the current Republican leaders and their allies from the
House.”
Morgan did not get his
wish in the 2002 elections, when the Republicans won a majority
of seats despite him. By betraying that Republican majority and
joining the Democrats, Morgan, with the full support of Jim Black and
the Democrats, did get part of his wish in 2004, though more of
his own loyalists lost during the primaries, than did his opponents
in the General Election.
The big
losers, of course, are the majority of North Carolina citizens who
voted Republican for state House and Senate in 2002 and 2004, and
ended up with the Democrats still in control, thanks to Richard
Morgan.
Think how different it would have
been if, for 2003-2004, the Republican majority of 61 had stayed
united behind their Caucus nominee for Speaker. Think how different
it can be in the future, if Republicans unite as Republicans, rather
than allow themselves to be split by the Democrats and Richard
Morgan.
People can play the blame
game if they want to . . . . but the numbers speak for themselves,
and Morgan’s own words and actions speak for him.
By Art
Pope, Revised November 11, 2004,