by David A. Burton
3 August, 2016 (revised 18 Sept. 2016 & 26 Nov. 2018)
1. Single-sheet, two-sided printable
2. Web-format, with hyperlinks
†Note: The only types of voter fraud examined in this analysis are cases of ballots being cast on behalf of the same person in two different States, in the same election: either through impersonation, or by the same person voting more than once.
25 million elections were simulated, to determine the likelihood of
varying numbers of coincidental name+DOB+Last4SSN matches. Here is the
source code, usage instructions, sample output, and discussion:
I couldn't find an online binomial distribution calculator which performed well for large numbers,
so I built one:
In 2011, Joseph R. Barr, Stephen Coggeshall and Wenzhong Zhao of
ID Analytics, Inc. produced a
entitled, The Trouble With Names, in which they calcuated that as many
as 8.3% of Americans might coincidentally match other Americans with the same
name and date of birth. But there are problems, both with their analysis, and
with its application to voter identification:
1. 11 July, 2016 Email from Dave Burton, about problems with The Trouble With Names, by Barr, Cogggeshall & Zhao
W: +1 919-481-2183
M: +1 919-244-3316
109 Black Bear Ct, Cary, NC 27513-4941 USA
Here's a blog comment based on this analysis:
Here's a newspaper article relevent to this analysis:
“The numbers of potential voter fraud cases revealed Wednesday were gleaned from a cross-checking of voter records among 28 states. It was the first time North Carolina participated in the cross-check process, which was required under sweeping new election laws passed last year by the Republican-controlled General Assembly.
“Specifically, the check found 765 voters whose first and last names, dates of birth and last four digits of their Social Security numbers matched exactly with a voter registered in another state and who voted in both states in 2012. The results also identified 35,750 voters with matching names and dates of birth who voted in North Carolina and another state that year.”
Copyright © 2016, 2018, 2020 David A. Burton. Last modified: 12-Nov-20 (version 9).
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