To: Michael Mann <mann@meteo.psu.edu>
Subject: Re: The web page is up about the Yamal tree-ring chronology
Date: Wed Oct 28 09:04:27 2009
Cc: Gavin Schmidt <gschmidt@giss.nasa.gov>
Mike,
Sept 2009 isn't up yet. I expect it in the next day or so. I'll check again tomorrow.
Away Friday and Mon/Tues next week. Our web site will update on Sunday if the HC have
updated theirs.
Seems nothing yet on Keith's Yamal.
One of the Russians has a reason why Khad hasn't grown so much. All the sites in the
region have permafrost at depth. Those nearer the rivers have the permafrost at a greater
depth, partly due to the rivers. Warmth in the 20th century has meant greater depths for
the roots. Khad is a walk from the river and slightly higher, so possibly has less
available soil depth above the permafrost. All the sites are sampled through river
transport. When the coring was done in the 1980s and early 1990s the fieldwork teams ate a
lot of fish!
Permafrost idea is impossible to prove without going back to the sites and drilling down.
The Russians plan to do this when they revisit the area, but that depends on resources.
Cheers
Phil
Cheers
Phil
At 17:07 27/10/2009, Michael Mann wrote:
Hi Phil,
Thanks--we know that. The point is simply that if we want to talk about about a
meaningful "2009" anomaly, every additional month that is available from which to
calculate an annual mean makes the number more credible. We already have this for
GISTEMP, but have been awaiting HadCRU to be able to do a more decisive update of the
status of the disingenuous "globe is cooling" contrarian talking point,
mike
p.s. be a bit careful about what information you send to Andy and what emails you copy
him in on. He's not as predictable as we'd like
On Oct 27, 2009, at 1:04 PM, Phil Jones wrote:
Mike,
Yes a link will be fine.
I'll look into Sept numbers, but you shouldn't be looking at individual months.
Cheers
Phil
At 16:54 27/10/2009, Michael Mann wrote:
thanks Phil,
Perhaps we'll do a simple update to the Yamal post, e.g. linking Keith/s new
page--Gavin t?
As to the issues of robustness, particularly w.r.t. inclusion of the Yamal series, we
actually emphasized that (including the Osborn and Briffa '06 sensitivity test) in our
original post! As we all know, this isn't about truth at all, its about plausibly
deniable accusations,
m
p.s. any word on HadCRU Sep numbers yet???
On Oct 27, 2009, at 12:37 PM, Phil Jones wrote:
Gavin, Mike, Andy,
It has taken Keith longer than he would have liked, but it is up. There is a lot to
read and understand. It is structured for different levels. The link goes to the top
level. There is more detail below this and then there are the data below that.
You can either go to our main page
[1]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/ then click on the link
or directly here
[2]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/yamal2009/
I'll let you make up you own minds! It seems to me as though McIntyre cherry picked for
effect.
There is an additional part that shows how many series from Ch 6 of AR4 used Yamal -
most didn't! Also there is a sensitivity test of omitting it - which comes from the
Supplementary Info with Osborn and Briffa (2006). As expected omitting it makes very
little difference. To get to this follow the links from the above link.
McIntyre knows that the millennial temperature record is pretty robust, otherwise he
would produce his own series. Similarly the instrumental temperature is even more
robust, which he also knows.
Cheers
Phil
Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email [3]p.jones@uea.ac.uk
NR4 7TJ
UK
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
--
Michael E. Mann
Professor
Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC)
Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075
503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663
The Pennsylvania State University email: [4]mann@psu.edu
University Park, PA 16802-5013
website: [5]http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~mann/Mann/index.html
"Dire Predictions" book site:
[6]http://www.essc.psu.edu/essc_web/news/DirePredictions/index.html
Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email [7]p.jones@uea.ac.uk
NR4 7TJ
UK
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
--
Michael E. Mann
Professor
Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC)
Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075
503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663
The Pennsylvania State University email: [8]mann@psu.edu
University Park, PA 16802-5013
website: [9]http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~mann/Mann/index.html
"Dire Predictions" book site:
[10]http://www.essc.psu.edu/essc_web/news/DirePredictions/index.html
Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk
NR4 7TJ
UK
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
References
1. http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/
2. http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/yamal2009/
3. mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk
4. mailto:mann@psu.edu
5. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~mann/Mann/index.html
6. http://www.essc.psu.edu/essc_web/news/DirePredictions/index.html
7. mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk
8. mailto:mann@psu.edu
9. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~mann/Mann/index.html
10. http://www.essc.psu.edu/essc_web/news/DirePredictions/index.html
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